Rate paths, refinancing walls, and the case for patience.

Much of the noise about the 2026 maturity cliff has it the wrong way round. The aggregate number — €1.7tn of corporate debt maturing in Europe across 2026 and 2027 — is large, but it's distributed across thousands of issuers, most of whom either pre-funded in 2024 or sit in tenors that allow them to wait.

Where the real risk sits

There is a concentrated risk in the lower investment-grade segment, in cyclicals, and in the smaller European banks. But the systemic story is not what the headlines suggest.